Republicans might overtake Democrats in advertising
If it was to bet on election outcomes at prediction markets, the first thing to pay attention to would be the flow of campaign advertising. Advertising might not seem so important when it comes to convincing voters, but it certainly has some sort of impact, and the effects might be short-lived.
If a candidate had a temporary edge on their airwaves, then all of it may lead to a temporary surge in the polls, which would later recede. One of the reasons why Democrats might be afraid of this is that they would end up being dominated by Republicans in the advertising race, even if only temporarily.
Republicans might have an enthusiasm advantage
One of the reasons why the ABC News poll scares the Democrats is because of a large enthusiasm differential that can be seen between registered voters. There’s a 4-point enthusiasm gap, which somehow reminds everyone of the 2010 midterms when there was a 6-point gap between polls of registered and likely voters. Back then, the Democrats suffered a catastrophic election.
Still, other polls didn’t come with the same enthusiasm advantage for Democrats. For example, there was only a 1-point enthusiasm gap shown in The New York Times’s recent ballot polling. However, right after the Dobbs decision, other polls found that even if Republicans were more excited to vote at the midterms, Democrats didn’t hold back their own enthusiasm, either.
Democrats also tended to have strong turnout in ballot referendums, but also in special elections. The presented evidence shows a modest enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, which is enough to make the job much harder for Democrats, especially in the House. But nothing compares to the magnitude of 2010.
There are also other aspects worth considering: voters at the midterms seem to be older, whiter, and more well-educated, in comparison to voters in presidential years. So from a historic perspective, these aspects tend to favor Republicans.
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