The fundamentals are expected to be pretty food for Republicans
Of course, this election might represent an exception to the well-known midterm pushback against the president’s party. However, it isn’t always a good idea to start betting on exceptions. That’s why we should go back over why we think this election will be a strong one for Republicans:
- The opposition party has been known throughout history to do very well in the midterms. It’s probably one of the most robust trends in our politics.
- Even if President Biden’s numbers seem to have improved recently, he still remains fairly unpopular, as he has an approval rating of 42 percent.
- Americans are still quite unhappy with where the country seems to be going, which can only hurt the incumbent party.
- Republicans have a great structural advantage in the Senate since they are beloved by white, rural voters. It seems that white, rural voters are everywhere.
The “issue environment”, in favor of Democrats
Throughout the whole 2022 summer, Democrats caught the media and voter attention to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe w. Wade, but also from the FBI investigation of former President Donald Trump.
These issues only remind people of Republican power and influence, and the whole thing might turn out to be more of a 2020-like choice between Democrats and Republicans, and less of a referendum on Biden and Democrats’ abilities.
However, discussions related to immigration and the economy seem to get more headlines, which can only lead us to the conclusion that the summer turned out to bring a best-case scenario for Democrats.
